High frequency indicators, like vehicles sales, air traffic, steel consumption and GST E-way bills, point towards a sequential pickup in momentum of economic activity during the second half of the fiscal 2024-25 and sustain moving forward, RBI Bulletin said on Wednesday. However, a strong dollar, driven by US economic resilience and trade policy pivots, could exacerbate capital outflows from emerging economies, push risk premiums higher, and intensify external vulnerabilities, said an article on 'State of the Economy' published in RBI's February bulletin.
Amid the row over Congress leader Sam Pitroda's remarks, the party on Wednesday asserted that it has no plans whatsoever to introduce an inheritance tax and cited former Union minister Jayant Sinha's remarks to allege that it is the Modi government that wanted to do so.
The Centre's fiscal deficit touched 74.5 per cent of the annual target at the end of January 2025, according to the data released by Controller General of Accounts (CGA) on Friday.
'We had tremendous faith in honorable Modiji in his second term as he was well-settled. Sadly that has been belied.'
Benchmark equity indices climbed nearly 1 per cent on Wednesday on buying in HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries. Investors are eyeing the two important events lined up ahead -- the interim budget and the US Fed interest rate decision -- to derive further cues from. Recovering all the early lost ground, the 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 612.21 points or 0.86 per cent to settle at 71,752.11.
If it was Andhra Pradesh last Budget, it's poll-bound Bihar that has now turned to Centre with a list of demands. How the NDA government is delivering on promises.
Several changes were made to the new income-tax regime in Budget 2023. The old income-tax regime was not tinkered with and is still available.
'Each state is unique, but when it comes to finance, the fundamentals cannot be different.'
FinMin does not expect tax or non-tax revenue to reach anywhere close to the targets set in the interim Budget. Sources say that the challenge before the new government will be either to accept the reduced projection and tailor the Budget accordingly or set a more ambitious target.
The finance minister has stayed true to her commitment to fiscal consolidation, even though the pace of the decline in the deficit could have been faster, notes A K Bhattacharya.
'Maharashtra is virtually in a debt trap.'
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will be presenting her fifth Budget that may do a tightrope walk between staying fiscally prudent and meeting general public expectations of lower taxes and a wider social security net, while at the same time firing the engines of the economy.
Fitch Ratings on Monday said India's pace of debt reduction is gradual, leaving room for a downside risk to sovereign rating in the eventuality of a significant economic shock. However, the rating agency expressed confidence in India's ability to stick to its medium-term fiscal framework, which aims to reduce debt and bring it on a downward trajectory over time.
Analysts and economists have hailed the fiscal projections in the interim Budget, saying the lower fiscal deficit forecast shows that the government, even in an election year, is serious about fiscal consolidation and that the numbers look achievable. According to Devendra Kumar Pant, the chief economist at India Ratings, the two broad themes of the interim Budget are fiscal consolidation and stepping up focus on agriculture/rural to course correct, to some extent, the differential benefits of the ongoing economic growth that's tilted in favour of upper-income bracket/urban households. The projected fiscal deficit numbers for FY24 and FY25 suggest that the government is serious about achieving the fiscal consolidation path of 4.5 per cent fiscal deficit by FY26, and given the nominal GDP growth assumption and revenue buoyancy, the target appears plausible, Pant said in a note.
The government has notified October 1 as the starting date for direct tax dispute resolution scheme Vivad Se Vishwas 2.0. Vivad Se Vishwas scheme 2.0 was originally announced in Budget 2024-25 presented in July for resolution of certain income tax disputes pending appeal.
The government is mulling changes in the income tax laws to bring cryptocurrencies under the tax net, with some changes that could form part of the Budget next year, a top official said. Revenue secretary Tarun Bajaj said that in terms of income tax, some people are already paying capital gains tax on the income from cryptocurrency, and in respect of Goods and Services Tax (GST) also the law is "very clear" that the rate would be applicable as those in case of other services.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday said the government has made the new income tax regime more attractive for taxpayers and has thus brought about 'substantial changes' in its structure for the benefit of the middle class. The Budget 2023-24 has proposed changes in the optional tax regime, which was introduced in 2020-21. Speaking to reporters after presentation of the Budget, Sitharaman said the country has been waiting for a direct tax regime which is simplified and easy in compliance.
With its age-old fascination for education, southern states have done better than the North. Start-ups, IT hubs, and industry majors setting up shop have changed the face of the South. Nearly 79% of global offices set up by international conglomerates in India are in the South. Almost 46% of tech unicorns are from the South. The GDP per person in the South is 4.2 times higher than the North. None of these indicators can be ignored by any central government, whatever the political compulsions, notes Ramesh Menon.
In Budget 2015, the finance minister has opted to take the slow road and has doubled the cess on coal to "balance the need to tax pollution and the price of power" in his words.
'The government has to explain (to the army, air force and navy chiefs) whether they want a punitive strike, a deep punitive strike, or whether they want limited war or an all-out war, will it be a circumscribed war or will it be a shallow attack along the border.'
The interim Budget proposals that will be presented on February 1 in the backdrop of the general elections scheduled in April/May 2024 are likely to have a hint of populism, believe analysts, but are unlikely to derail the government from its path of fiscal prudence.
India's leading steel companies hope the Modi 3.0 Budget will continue the massive capital expenditure currently underway, focusing on infrastructure development, manufacturing, and fair trade. The infrastructure segment is the largest steel user, and the government's focus has fuelled steel consumption even as international markets have underperformed. According to provisional statistics, steel consumption grew 13.6 per cent in FY24, reaching 136 million tonnes (mt), according to a CRISIL report.
The Indian government has increased the salaries of Members of Parliament (MPs) by 24 percent, effective April 1, 2023. This increase was based on the Cost Inflation Index and brings their monthly salary to Rs 1.24 lakh. The notification also included increases in daily allowances for sitting members, pension, and additional pension for former MPs. While some MPs welcomed the increase, others expressed dissatisfaction and instead advocated for a rise in the MP Local Area Development Fund (MPLADS). The increase has been implemented based on the Salary, Allowances and Pension of Members of Parliament Act and the Cost Inflation Index specified in the Income Tax Act of 1961.
S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday said the impact of the US reciprocal tariff will be limited on India as the economy is domestically oriented with less reliance on exports. YeeFarn Phua, Director, Sovereigns and International Public Finance Ratings, Asia-Pacific S&P Global also said India will clock a 6.7-6.8 per cent GDP growth over the next two years.
The net direct tax collection increased by 21.82 per cent to over Rs 9.57 lakh crore till October 9, helped by good inflow from corporates and individuals, the Finance Ministry said on Tuesday. The net collections have reached 52.5 per cent of the full-year budget estimates (BE) of Rs 18.23 lakh crore. The provisional figures of Direct Tax collections up to October 9, 2023, continue to register steady growth, the statement said.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday said the interim Budget presented by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman offers the "guarantee" of strengthening the foundation of a developed India and carries the "confidence of continuity".
Concessional rate of tax on dividends received by Indian companies from foreign subsidiaries will be done away with from April 1, a change that may hamper global expansion of Indian companies and compel some firms to move their headquarters out of India to geographies such as Singapore and Dubai. At present, dividends received by Indian companies from their foreign subsidiaries are subject to a concessional tax rate of 15 per cent under Section 115BBD of the Income Tax (I-T) Act. The provisions of this section shall not apply from assessment year 2023-24 onwards, according to the Finance Bill.
'While the Budget would be growth-friendly, it would not come at the expense of an increase in the fiscal deficit.'
Billionaire Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries Ltd is estimated to have earned 724 million euros (about Rs 6,850 crore) from exporting fuel made from Russian crude oil to the US in one year, an European think tank said in a report. "From January 2024 to the end of January 2025, the US imported EUR 2.8 billion of refined oil from six refineries in India and Turkey that process Russian crude.
'It won't be a V-shaped recovery. It'll be consolidation.' 'Investors might exit during that grind. It'll be painful.'
Per capita income has more than doubled to Rs 1.97 lakh in around nine years. Indian economy has increased in size from being 10th to 5th largest in the world in the past nine years. Seven priorities of the Budget, 'Saptarishi', are inclusive development, reaching the last mile, infrastructure and investment, unleashing the potential, green growth, youth power and financial sector.
Domestic rating agency ICRA on Monday said Indian companies are likely to clock 7-8 per cent revenue growth during the March quarter of the current fiscal year, led by revival in rural demand and uptick in government spending. ICRA expects the private capital expenditure (capex) cycle to remain measured in view of the uncertainties around geopolitical developments and relatively subdued outlook on merchandise exports from India.
In an online chat with Rediff.com readers, G Srikanth, partner, GSV Associates, chartered accountants, Chennai and member of the Institute of Cost and Management Accountants, answered queries about the new income tax proposals mooted in the Union Budget 2020-2021.
However, the meeting of the company's board of directors, through video conferencing, started at 1.30 pm and ended only at 11.50 pm on Tuesday, according to a filing made to BSE at 12.51 am on Wednesday. In the 2024 December quarter, the airline, which had been facing multiple headwinds, raised Rs 3,000 crore from qualified institutional investors.
The exodus of FPIs from the Indian equity markets continued unabated, as they withdrew over Rs 7,300 crore (about $840 million) in the first week of this month due to global trade tensions, with the US imposing tariffs on countries such as Canada, Mexico, and China. This came following an outflow of Rs 78,027 crore in the entire January. Before that, they invested Rs 15,446 crore in December, data with the depositories showed.
Majority of respondents feel that the government in the forthcoming Budget will increase the standard deduction and give more incentives for housing loans.
In an online chat with Rediff.com readers, personal finance expert Anil Rego answered queries about the new tax regime announced in the Union Budget.
This could impact non-resident Indians staying in countries such as UAE which does not impose income tax on individuals under local tax laws.
Providing comfort to the government on the revenue front amid fiscal stress, direct tax collection is moving closer to the revised Budget target for 2021-21 and may get a further thrust from the last instalment of the advance tax payment, the deadline for which ended on Monday. The contraction in net direct tax collection narrowed to 5 per cent year-on-year as on March 15 compared to a 9 per cent decline seen in January. In absolute terms, net collection stood at Rs 8.2 trillion against Rs 8.67 trillion in the same period last year, according to the provisional numbers shared by a government official.
The government on Tuesday announced withdrawal of the 2 per cent equalisation levy or digital tax on overseas e-commerce supplies.
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